Italy
Francesco Salesio Schiavi is a specialist in international relations of the Middle East. His particular focus lies in fragile and conflict-affected countries in the Levant and the Gulf, including Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, as well as armed non-state actors (NSAs) in the region, particularly those associated with Iran. His research interests encompass a wide range of topics, including security, defence, and governance in the MENA region. Francesco extensively studies international actors' military and diplomatic interventions in the MENA, primarily emphasising the USA, the EU, EU Member states, and NATO. Additionally, he examines the use of military technologies (like missiles and UAVs) by leading regional actors, such as Israel, Turkey, and Iran.
Francesco is a contributor to many international firms, including Al-Monitor and the NATO Defence College Foundation, as well as the Italian magazine Limes. Between 2019 and 2023, he held a position as Researcher and Analyst at the MENA Centre at ISPI and as a valued member of the "Rome MED-Mediterranean Dialogues" scientific team. Before joining ISPI, he served as the Coordinator of the Middle East department at Pandora, Rivista di Teoria e Politica, in Bologna, where he co-edited the book "The Throne of Sand: State, Nations, and Power in the Middle East" ("Il trono di sabbia. Stato, nazioni e potere in Medio Oriente," Rosenberg & Sellier, 2019).
Since 2023, Francesco has served as a Board Member of the Steering Committee for the Euromesco Annual Conference, which is organized by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) in Barcelona in cooperation with the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
He holds a Bachelor's in History, a Master of Arts in Global History and Oriental Studies from the "Alma Mater Studiorum", University of Bologna, as well as a Postgraduate Master in International Relations of the Middle East (MIMES) at the School of Economics and International Relations (ASERI), Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, in Milan.
Visitors to Francesco's website can explore his extensive work, publications, and ongoing projects as he continues to offer valuable insights into the complexities of international relations in the Middle East.
Escalating tensions between Yemen's government and the Houthis threaten to pull Saudi Arabia back into a conflict Riyadh has spent four years trying to keep frozen.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war in February 2026, Kuwait has announced a series of major defense acquisitions, including a $1 billion contract for...
The activation of a long-pending defense agreement reflects Kuwait's search for new operational expertise after months of Iranian missile and drone attacks while highlighting Ukraine's growing role in Gulf security.
As US and Iranian negotiators continue technical discussions in Doha on implementing last month's memorandum of understanding, Oman is emerging as Tehran's principal Gulf counterpart on the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Indian foreign minister's four-country tour reflects how GCC states are increasingly positioning India as a long-term partner for economic resilience, maritime security and strategic diversification after the Iran conflict.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
Talks on BrahMos cruise missiles and the Akashteer air defense network highlight Abu Dhabi's effort to diversify military partnerships and reshape its postwar security strategy.
Analysis: While the US and Iran negotiate the future of the Strait of Hormuz, European governments are quietly preparing for a different role: securing it
As Gulf states emerge from months of conflict with Iran, their search for new security partners is increasingly extending beyond traditional Western suppliers.
The Iran war triggered one of the most significant reassessments of Gulf air-defense strategy in decades, exposing the structural limitations of systems primarily designed around...
In less than a week, the UAE's Edge Group has unveiled a string of major defense announcements in Europe.
As Gulf states recalibrate after months of conflict with Iran, defense priorities are shifting from emergency procurement to long-term industrial partnerships.
After repeated missile and drone attacks, Kuwait is investing in new counter-drone capabilities while reassessing vulnerabilities exposed by the conflict.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
Kuwait has long sought to position itself as one of the Gulf's most cautious and diplomatic actors. This week, however, the country found itself at the center of a conflict it has consistently tried to avoid.
Il s'impose comme le premier chef de milice irakien à s'aligner publiquement sur la volonté du nouveau Premier ministre, Ali al-Zaidi, de réaffirmer le contrôle exclusif de l'État sur les armes,...
Saudi Arabia is moving to domestically produce a long-range attack drone modeled on Iran's Shahed-136, signaling a major shift toward scalable, low-cost offensive deterrence.
Iranian strikes on an oil facility in Fujairah and renewed attacks on shipping are raising fears that the US-Iran ceasefire is giving way to a new phase of pressure on Gulf states.
Saudi Arabia's expanding military partnership with Pakistan and the UAE's new strategic defence pact with India are accelerating the emergence of parallel Gulf security architectures shaped by the Iran war.
Iraq's new procurement strategy reflects the lessons of the Iran war and the growing importance of layered air defence against drones and missile threats
Saudi Arabia's potential engagement with Turkey's KAAN fighter jet program has gained renewed relevance in light of recent regional development. More than a question of...
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
Reports on Emirati and Saudi strikes suggest Gulf monarchies moved beyond passive defense - but followed sharply different strategies.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war is transforming the regional threat environment, exposing vulnerabilities in existing arms acquisition strategies and forcing states to reckon with both the reliability of traditional suppliers and the sufficiency of their current arsenals. Major defense exporters are moving to capitalize on the global surge in demand for armaments, with Japan recently lifting restrictions on its arms exports. A volatile regional and global security climate will also likely accelerate...
Iraq has evolved from a buffer between competing regional powers into an active launchpad for proxy warfare.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pursuing distinct, yet converging, strategies that combine high-end unmanned systems, industrial partnerships, and new security ties to navigate a changing strategic environment.
The deployment is the first known combat use of the system outside Israel as Emirati-Israeli ties shift from political normalization toward military coordination.
Abu Dhabi's decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ marks the biggest shift in Gulf energy politics in years - and could reshape regional coordination after the Iran war.
As Iranian strikes exposed structural gaps, Gulf states are expanding their air defense architecture through new suppliers, lower-cost systems, and operational partnerships.
Emirati officials raised the possibility of a currency swap line with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during meetings in Washington last week.
Host Adam Lucente speaks to Al-Monitor's chief business correspondent, Jack Dutton, and Gulf newsletter author Francesco Schiavi about how the Gulf views Iran and the US declaring the Strait of Hormuz open. Listen as they cover why Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other states are not yet in the clear; the regional outreach to Pakistan amid its war mediation efforts; and other relevant developments.
On April 11, Pakistan deployed jets to Saudi Arabia under a 2025 defense pact, bolstering air defenses amid Saudi fears of future Iranian attacks.
Analysis: Ukraine's outreach injects a new layer of competition into Syria's complex security landscape, where Turkey dominates and Russia retains a foothold
As Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have come under Iranian attack, one central question is becoming harder to avoid: what, in practice, does the Kingdom's defense pact with Pakistan amount to under fire? Signed in Riyadh last September, the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) commits both sides to treating "any aggression against either...
Gulf states are trying to chart a path forward under a fragile ceasefire after weeks of attacks that disrupted energy output.
As tensions remain high across the Gulf and maritime routes come under renewed strain, Europe is confronting a familiar dilemma: how to safeguard critical chokepoints...
Gulf states are rapidly integrating Ukraine into their defense systems as sustained Iranian strikes reveal weaknesses in existing air and missile defenses.
The war unfolding between Iran and its adversaries is exposing a reality Gulf states can no longer ignore: even the world's most advanced air-defense systems...
Repeated Iranian strikes on Riyadh's diplomatic, civilian and energy infrastructure are reinforcing the kingdom's apparent need to reassert deterrence.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
The Iran war reflects how drones are no longer supporting weapons but central instruments of modern conflict, redefining how battles are fought and defended
Freight rates on key Gulf-Asia routes have risen 20-35% since early March, while transit times for some rerouted shipments have doubled.
Baku, February 20, Tamilla Mammadova, AZERTAC The South Caucasus is currently experiencing a profound transformation: traditional patterns of influence are eroding, economic logic is increasingly intertwined with diplomacy, and infrastructure and transit are becoming no less important than traditional security concerns.
Iran warned on Tuesday that "not one liter of oil" would be exported from the Gulf while US and Israeli strikes continue.
Over the course of 2025, discussions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on strengthening collective air and missile defence regained momentum. Two security incidents involving Qatar served as critical operational reference points: the 23 June Iranian missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base and Israel's 9 September strike in Doha.
The Strait of Hormuz is becoming a key battleground in the war on Iran, sending shockwaves through global energy markets and international shipping routes
Experts say military and economic risks and losses could determine what happens next in the conflict
"Each interception carries a financial and logistical cost," one analyst said.
The recent Iranian strikes on bases, airports and energy facilities across the Gulf have exposed gaps in the GCC's defense architecture.
Host Adam Lucente speaks to Al-Monitor contributor Francesco Schiavi about the security situation in the Gulf amid the war with Iran, including how long regional states can successfully defend themselves, the possibility of their retaliation against the Islamic Republic directly, and the potential impact of Europe sending military assets to the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has signed a gold exploration agreement with Sudan's army-backed government, deepening its Red Sea rivalry with the UAE.
This past summer, UAE Defense Undersecretary Ibrahim Nasser Mohammed Al Alawi climbed into the rear seat of a South Korean KF-21 Boramae prototype for a...
Running Feb. 8-12, the World Defense Show in Riyadh brings together 1,468 exhibitors from 89 countries, having quickly established itself as one of the region's leading defense industry gatherings.
Will the agreement build a cohesive national army that can absorb armed actors or lead to parallel territorial units that lack institutional integration?
For Riyadh, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit underscores a strategy of diversification - broadening economic ties while widening political and security options.
Saudi Arabia has led a quiet push - alongside Oman and Qatar - to persuade Washington against intervening militarily, warning that escalation would rattle oil markets and risk destabilizing the Gulf.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
UAE's G42 plans to deploy an 8-exaflop AI supercomputer in India - a national-scale system aimed at strengthening New Delhi's capacity to train and run advanced models domestically.
Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have intensified quiet diplomacy to discourage US military action, pairing it with stepped-up security coordination.
Turkey joining the mutual defence pact signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could pave the way for a major shift in the Middle East's balance of power
India and the UAE signed a letter of intent toward a Strategic Defense Partnership framework, paving the way for potential cooperation on joint defense manufacturing.
India and the UAE signed a letter of intent on a strategic defense partnership, reflecting Abu Dhabi's push to diversify security ties and New Delhi's effort to expand cooperation without deeper regional entanglements.
The author of the Al-Monitor Gulf newsletter, Francesco Schiavi, joins host Adam Lucente to discuss the latest events in Yemen. They cover the momentum shift in the conflict between the government and the Southern Transitional Council, whether the UAE will be able to maintain its influence in Yemen and the strengthening Saudi posture toward the country.
Saudi Arabia pairs recent military gains with dialogue efforts to ease southern Yemen tensions and reassert Gulf leadership.
Saudi Arabia's strike on Mukalla and ultimatum to the UAE highlight growing Gulf tensions, as diverging priorities in Yemen, security and energy reshape regional coordination.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
From fighter jet debates to drones and megadeals, Gulf defense planners are shifting from political signaling to tangible results.
The Southern Transitional Council's military gains and growing institutional backing in southern Yemen have intensified strains with the Saudi-backed government, raising new stakes for Gulf diplomacy as Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Oman maneuver to contain escalation.
When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) left Washington on November 19 with a U.S.-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA) in hand, one line in the...
Gulf states are navigating simultaneous high-level Chinese and Indian diplomacy this week, deepening economic engagement with both powers while preserving strategic flexibility.
Amid the tenuous ceasefire between Iran and Israel, signs are emerging that the Islamic Republic may be looking to China to restock its arsenals. This interest appears to stem from the rapid depletion of offensive and defensive Iranian systems during Israel's June 13-24 attack, and growing dissatisfaction within Iran's political and security establishment over the lack of tangible military support from Russia.
As the push to deploy an international security force in Gaza gains momentum, its mandate, leadership, duration, and troop composition have yet to be defined
Riyadh's high-profile investment forum set the stage for global diplomacy this week, as Gulf states deepened ties from Tehran to Bogotá and expanded their reach across Africa and Asia.
With F-35 negotiations with Washington still stalled after four years, the United Arab Emirates is mulling a new proposal to partner with South Korea on production of a multirole fighter jet that could offer Abu Dhabi a strategic hedge as regional Gulf airpower competition is intensifying.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar unveiled sweeping agreements - including a flagship high-speed rail link - that mark their most ambitious push yet to deepen strategic coordination.
Expanding Saudi-Chinese defense cooperation mirrors the broader deepening of Saudi-Chinese diplomatic and economic relations.
The event reaffirmed both states' efforts to anchor themselves in global supply chains and underscored their shift from import dependence to co-development and export-driven manufacturing.
After years of political deadlock over the sale of Eurofighters to Turkey, Ankara appears to be nearing success with pending deals for new and secondhand versions of the aircraft.
Exploring Israel’s Doha strike and its strategic aftershocks in the GCC
The United Arab Emirates' effort to anchor its energy and industrial future in artificial intelligence took a major step forward this week, as Microsoft announced a $7.9 billion expansion in the Emirates through 2029.
The Saudi deal comes weeks after Trump signed an executive order stipulating that the United States would come to Qatar's military aid if the Gulf state were under threat. Riyadh, by contrast, secured the US-Saudi SDA, a political-military framework that broadens defense cooperation.
As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity.
Saudi Arabia is stepping up its bid to become a global mining hub, launching a new bidding round for three mineral exploration zones to help it unlock an estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral wealth.
Recently leaked documents suggest 16 fighters are already on Russian assembly lines, with deliveries slated through 2027. For Tehran, it would be the first meaningful fighter upgrade in decades.
Beneath the diplomatic choreography at COP30, the Gulf's approach reveals clear contradictions: Since 2021, most GCC states have boosted oil and gas output to fund fiscal reforms.
The delay stems from regulatory and logistical hurdles, highlighting how export controls are complicating one of the Gulf's most high-profile tech initiatives.
The Trump family is deepening its business and investment ties across the Gulf through headline-grabbing real estate and tech deals.
Francesco Schiavi assesses the geopolitical implications of Israel's airstrike on Doha and argues that it erodes the credibility of the security architecture the Gulf has relied on for decades.
A new naval protocol and joint drills underscore Cairo and Riyadh's bid to institutionalize military coordination amid mounting threats in the Red Sea, Gulf and Mediterranean.
Bilateral talks between Kuwait and Japan this week produced a joint action plan through 2028 spanning energy, trade and education, while advancing long-delayed free trade negotiations.
The Doha strike marks the first time Israel has carried out an attack on Qatari soil. Qatar is known for its role in hosting Hamas' political leadership and association with Muslim Brotherhood figures, positions that have enhanced Doha's role as a facilitator of regional mediation.
Saudi Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef is leading a five-day mission to China this week, advancing cooperation on industrial manufacturing and critical minerals as Riyadh pursues its Vision 2030 goals.
Riyadh is positioning itself as China's leading economic partner in the Middle East across energy, advanced industries and infrastructure.
The Menace from Above - Lessons on Evolving Missile Defense for the Gulf
As Riyadh struggles to reach its 50% Vision 2030 target, leadership reshuffles signal pressure for faster progress.
Saudi Arabia and Syria signed a landmark investment protection agreement in Riyadh on Aug. 18, capping a wave of Gulf commitments to Syria's postwar rebuilding.
A recent "friendship flight" with the KF-21 Boramae gave the UAE a firsthand look at Seoul's most advanced fighter, highlighting Abu Dhabi's efforts to diversify its airpower suppliers and expand regional influence.
Kuwait is in the spotlight after revoking nearly 50,000 citizenships in less than a year in a rare, public move with far-reaching domestic and regional implications.
Riyadh seeks French expertise for crowd control, counternarcotics and digital security ahead of a decade of mega-events.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia wrapped up a high-stakes presence at Turkey's IDEF 2025 defense expo, clinching major agreements that reinforced their shift from arms buyers to strategic partners.
Israel's military intervention in Suweida lets Netanyahu frame it as protecting Syrian minorities, positioning Israel as a quasi-guarantor in the region.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are staging a notable presence at IDEF 2025, Turkey's major defense industry exhibition taking place in Istanbul. Both nations are leveraging the expo to reinforce regional partnerships and solidify new joint ventures.
Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah concluded a high-profile state visit to France this week, his first since taking office last December.
I'm Francesco Schiavi, your Al-Monitor Gulf newsletter author.This week, Gulf capitals are seizing the reins of Syria's post-sanctions transition. As Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa kicks off a UAE-led regional tour, the spotlight shifts to how Arab Gulf states plan to shape Damascus' reintegration into regional diplomacy, energy flows and reconstruction funding.
Without a return to diplomacy or a new nuclear deal, renewed Israeli attacks on Iran will not be a question of if, but when
Welcome back to Al-Monitor Gulf,This week in the Gulf, all eyes are on Syria as Donald Trump lifts US sanctions in a bid to accelerate its reintegration - opening the door to Gulf-backed recovery plans.
As Tehran strikes Al Udeid and a Trump-brokered truce halts escalation, Gulf states weigh their vulnerabilities and options amid fears of future conflict.
Moscow relied on Iranian drones in Ukraine. Now that the situation is reversed, will Russia help Iran rebuild its deterrence after Israel's deep strikes?
For Gulf leaders, the priority now is preventing the Iran-US crisis from blocking the region's critical energy arteries.
Experts react to the escalation between Israel and Iran, assessing the regional fallout, the role of the U.S., its implications for Iran and avenues for de-escalation.
Over two years into Russia's war in Ukraine, one low-cost weapon has emerged as a defining feature of Moscow's deep-strike strategy: the Shahed loitering munition. Born in Iran, modified in Russia, and deployed at industrial scale, the Shahed and its domestically manufactured Russian variants - Gera
Israel's AI-driven assault on Iran signals a new era of warfare in the Middle East, and Gulf states are watching closely.
With sanctions easing and reintegration into global markets underway, Syria faces a rare chance to rebuild-but turning momentum into recovery hinges on credible reforms, institutional capacity, and sustained international support.
For years, Gulf leaders prioritized quiet diplomacy, rapprochement with Tehran and efforts to revive a nuclear deal to insulate their economies. But Israel's Operation Rising Lion has upended that calculus.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long aspired to acquire the F-35 stealth fighter, viewing it as key to maintain technological superiority over regional rivals. Yet despite a 23B arms package authorized under Donald Trump's first 2017-21 term in office, negotiations stalled amid growing tensions under the Joe Biden administration (2021-25).
Riyadh's efficient management of one of the world's largest annual religious gatherings boosted its image as a capable steward of Islam's holiest sites and highlighted its ability to blend tradition with high-tech governance.
Historically, Israel's qualitative military edge has constrained the development of US-Gulf strategic ties, but could that be about to change?
The company's largest naval export to date signals a milestone in intra-Gulf defense cooperation and showcases the UAE's growing role as a regional arms exporter.
Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa capped his fourth to the Gulf with a state visit to Kuwait, consolidating the Gulf's emerging role as the gatekeeper of Syria's reintegration.
A sweeping display of arms and alliances in Benghazi reflects Khalifa Haftar's effort to project statehood, Moscow's deeper investment in Libya, and a shifting power balance that could reshape peace prospects.
Without a clear mandate, inclusivity, or enforcement mechanisms, transitional justice in Syria could become a political gesture instead of a transformative tool
Lifting sanctions won't be easy but his announcement - and brief meeting with al-Sharaa today - is more evidence of Israel's waning influence
Despite heavy bombardment, the Houthis retained significant missile and drone capabilities, adapted tactically, inflicted a $1 billion cost on US and emerged more strategically valuable to Iran.
TRENDS Research & Advisory strives to present an insightful and informed view of global issues and challenges from a strategic perspective. Established in 2014 as an independent research center, TRENDS conducts specialized studies in the fields of international relations and political, economic and social sciences.
China's first air drills in Egypt project power near critical trade routes, while Cairo maneuvers between Western military ties and Beijing's growing defense diplomacy.
The Turkish president's visit to Rome has strengthened Turkey-Italy ties through cooperation deals, including in the defense sector.
Analysis: Rather than complete disengagement, the drawdown reflects a shift in the US's risk calculus, but will it leave a vacuum that others could fill?
Does renewed contact between the United Arab Emirates and Syria signal a deeper political alignment or a cautious attempt to manage regional dynamics without fully endorsing the new Syrian order?
Iraqi leaders must assess if their new Syrian counterparts can be reliable partners and whether deeper political and economic cooperation can be pursued.
Francesco Salesio Schiavi assesses how the Libyan landscape could develop amid reports of a US-Russia rapprochement.
Negotiations could breathe new life into US-Iran relations that have been deteriorating for nearly five decades
Analysis: With Turkey's potential takeover of the strategic T4 airbase a threat to Israel's aerial dominance in Syria, a regional crisis could be brewing.
As war threats escalate between Iran and the United States, as well as Israel, Tehran's increasingly sophisticated missiles program takes spotlight.
Politics Podcast · Updated weekly · Dive deeper into the week's biggest stories from the Middle East and around the world with The National's foreign desk. Nuances are often missed in day-to-day headlines. We go Beyond the Headlines by ...
Saudi Arabia's ambitions in artificial intelligence (AI) took center stage in France earlier this year as a delegation led by Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited the Paris AI Action Summit . Associated meetings with French officials and representatives of leading defense tech firms underscored Riyadh's increasing investment in AI-driven military applications.
Analysis: The interim president and the SDF agreed to integrate Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian military, but the deal raises more questions than it answers
In recent years, Russia has taken on a greater role in Iran's nuclear program, which may increase further under current geopolitical and strategic conditions for both parties. But with Washington engaging in negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine, and seeking to enter nuclear talks with Tehran, could a three-way dialogue ensue?
Key defense partnerships strengthen Italy's position as a leading arms supplier to the Middle East while highlighting broader shifts in how European defense industries adapt to a changing global arms market.
As Tehran and Moscow deepen their nuclear and space technology collaboration, concerns over dual-use applications and regional security implications grow.
Algeria has become the first state to buy Russia's Sukhoi Su-57E stealth fighter jet, reinforcing its deep military ties with Moscow amid a growing arms race in North Africa.
Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom last month announced the signing of a landmark agreement in the critical minerals sector, marking a pivotal step in addressing global shortages while advancing mutual economic and strategic priorities. The accord, inked at the recent Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, seeks to bolster supply chains, attract foreign investment and unlock new opportunities for British businesses.
CARPO Briefs This CARPO Brief analyzes Russia's evolving military strategy in the Mediterranean following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. With the fall of its long-time ally, Moscow faces growing challenges in maintaining its foothold in Syria while seeking alternative strongholds, particularly in Libya.
Analysis: Trump's volatility adds uncertainty to the US role in regional stability, with Gulf states likely to recalibrate partnerships beyond Washington.
France has emerged as the second-largest global arms exporter, surpassing Russia and solidifying its position as the leading European arms supplier to the Middle East.
Iran is expanding its diplomatic presence in North Africa by strengthening ties with Algeria and Tunisia amid shifting regional dynamics.
Analysis: Unifying a fragmented landscape of armed factions into a cohesive national army is one of the most complex challenges facing Syria's new authorities.
Although arms sales remain a cornerstone of the US-Saudi relationship, frustration with the limitations of the defense partnership have spurred efforts by Riyadh to diversify.
On her first visit to Saudi Arabia, Meloni is seeking to rebrand Italy's political engagement in the Middle East and bring about a new era for Italian industry in the region.
This partnership reflects a broader trend of strategic alignment between Gulf states' economic and security objectives and Spain's technological expertise especially in the naval sector.
Analysis: Post-Assad Syria, Iran-Israel hostilities, Palestine, and an unpredictable Trump administration will be key factors in reshaping the region in 2025.
Already the largest trade counterpart of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in South America, Brazil is emerging as a key security partner and a promising destination for Abu Dhabi's defense industry and arms exports. This trend has been epitomized in the recent letter of intent signed between the Emirati EDGE Group and the Management and Operational Centre of the Amazon Protection System (CENSIPAM).
Qatar's navy ambitions are broad and impressive, but can they be sustained?
Analysis: Russia's growing relationship with the Houthis signals a shift in Red Sea dynamics, challenging US influence and raising the stakes for Saudi Arabia.
Despite battlefield successes, Israel is grappling with a complex situation, lacking a clear political vision for the future of Gaza and the region, despite the appearance of a strategy (essentially manoeuvring on internal lines). The active fronts are multiplying, and the threat of a conventional confrontation with Iran is looming closer, compounding regional uncertainty. These events have heightened scrutiny of Israel’s nuclear deterrence, as the state faces both asymmetric threats from...
The country's strides in defense production reduce it reliance on arms imports while fostering growth of its domestic defense industry.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has in past years made significant strides towards economic diversification, with a strategic focus on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing. These efforts are central to its vision of becoming a regional hub for innovation.
With Donald Trump back in the White House, US-Saudi defense relations are poised to revert to a more transactional approach, marked by expansive arms deals and a focus on economic and strategic interests.
The kingdom is modernizing its navy under Vision 2030, replacing outdated vessels while seeking to diversify its military partnerships beyond traditional US reliance - but operational gaps remain.
The two BRICS members are increasing their defense cooperation amid shifts away from traditional security partners.
Abu Dhabi has recently seen a significant boost in its domestic defense and aerospace capabilities, thanks to its nation-based conglomerate, EDGE. This month, the group launched its new space company, FADA, marking a milestone in enhancing the Emirati's status in the strategic space sector.
Discover how Saudi Arabia is reshaping its global influence through Vision 2030. In an exclusive interview, Francesco Salesio Schiavi discusses mega-projects, societal change, and
Le implicazioni sul settore energetico libico e le sfide per la sicurezza energetica europea
Saudi Arabia is making big strides in its efforts to localize its defense industries.
Recognizing Hezbollah's limitations, Israel has frequently pushed the boundaries of its military engagement, including the targeted killing of senior Hezbollah commanders and the strikes this Friday.
With JCPOA limitations expiring, Moscow and Tehran are taking their defense ties to another level, with Russia reportedly discussing missiles purchases.
Saudi Arabia has recently undertaken a significant reorganization of its top military leadership, with new senior appointments to the kingdom's joint, land and naval forces - a step that could mark a pivotal shift in the country's defense strategy and domestic balance.
LONDON: In one of his first statements since winning the runoff election earlier this month, Iran's President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that militant groups across the Middle East would not allow Israel's "criminal policies" toward the Palestinians to continue.
Iraq's relations with Saudi Arabia are called into question as the Houthis seek to expand their influence in the region.
The European Union Naval Force mission and accomplishments reinforce commitment to becoming a significant maritime security provider. However, the absence of a clear strategy to effectively mitigate the escalating threat from Houthi rebels casts a shadow over the potential restoration of stability in the region.
Anatomia delle milizie filo-iraniane che governano l'Iraq. In che modo la Repubblica degli ayatollah sfrutta e gestisce le diverse agende dei clientes. L...
Ecco la nostra analisi sul contesto geopolitico in Medio Oriente, con particolare attenzione alle relazioni tra Stati Uniti e Iraq.
Giuseppe Dentice - responsabile del Desk Medio Oriente e Nord Africa del Ce.SI - riflette sul ruolo dell'Egitto nella guerra in corso a Gaza.
Analysis: Erdogan's landmark visit to Cairo was an important watershed in Egypt and Turkey's rapprochement.
Washington sia disposto ad accettare il rischio politico che Baghdad diventi sempre meno tollerante, almeno nello spazio pubblico
Analysis: No new Arab states are likely to join the Abraham Accords anytime soon, but will the Gaza war impact existing normalisation deals?
Eleonora Ardemagni di ISPI approfondisce la situazione in Yemen e il suo impatto sulle dinamiche regionali e internazionali.
Iran's January 2024 attacks on Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan, as well as the recent strike by Iranian proxies on a US base at the Syrian-Jordanian border, mark a significant escalation that tests US red l
https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1365008/defiant-moscou-ankara-agite-la-menace-dune-offensive-terrestre-en-syrie.html
What are the implications of US-UK airstrikes on the Houthis?
United against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine last year, the European Union is now unable to collectively condemn Israeli war crimes.
Impatto contenuto sull'industria petrolifera, ma in Libia le criticità sono ancora tante
In recent years, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has become a magnet for the Middle East, with several countries in the region knocking on the group's door. Its successes testify to the redefinition of global balances and the growing influence of China and Russia in a region considered to be the preserve of the United States.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios.
Experts react to the arbitration ruling in Paris and the Erbil-Baghdad Oil agreement.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the MENA region's most significant issues and trends, bringing together unique opinions upon the topic and reliable foresight into possible future scenarios. Today we will focus the spotlight upon the latest Russian efforts to normalise relations between Ankara and Damascus during the recent quadrilateral talks held in Moscow.
On the 20 th of March, a new step was taken by the global community to support the earthquake victims in Syria and Türkiye. Six weeks after the catastrophe, delegations from the EU and EU member states, the G20, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and international humanitarian and financial institutions convened in Brussels for the International Donors' Conference.
Over the last two decades, Rome and Baghdad have significantly expanded their security, economic, and cultural relations. Nowadays, Rome's decades-long commitment in Iraq, whose security and stability are crucial for the entire Middle East, puts Italy at the forefront of Europe's relationship with Baghdad.
Italy's relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ran aground in 2021-the culmination of a series of escalating tit-for-tat rebukes. First, the Italians suspended missile sales to Abu Dhabi on the grounds that Rome wished to address human rights concerns and bring about peace in Yemen.
Di Chiara Lovotti e Francesco Salesio Schiavi March 20, 2023, marks the 20 th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. After the fall of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist Regime, an ill-conceived reconstruction policy planted the seeds for dysfunctional Iraqi institutions, while the rapid deterioration of security and the growing intra-sectarian rivalry dragged the country into a long spiral of violence, political instability, and external interference.
The China-brokered restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is one of the most relevant diplomatic developments in the Middle East region. Experts of the ISPI MED network react to this historic breakthrough. "Saudi Arabia's agreement with Iran is not so surprising.
A fine ottobre in Iraq si è insediata la nuova amministrazione guidata da Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, il candidato indicato dal Quadro di coordinamento sciita, il maggior blocco parlamentare iracheno. Diverse sfide attendono il nuovo premier tanto sul piano interno quanto su quello esterno.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios.
It's been just over a month since the first Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone (rebranded in Russian colours as the "Geran-2") was intercepted by Ukrainian forces near Kupians, in the Kharkiv Oblast. This episode marked the first evidence of Russia's rumoured wide-scale deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's, or "drones"), manufactured and supplied by Iran (still officially denied by Tehran) for its military effort in Ukraine.
A quasi un anno dalle ultime elezioni, l'Iraq si trova nel mezzo del più lungo stallo politico che il paese abbia conosciuto dal 2003. A oggi, i principali partiti iracheni non sono infatti riusciti a giungere a un accordo sulla nomina della prima carica dello stato e sulla formazione di un nuovo esecutivo.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed commentary upon the most significant issues and trends in the MENA region. Today we focus on Iraq, where a new wave of violence between conflicting Shia factions has erupted within the capital and across the country.
ABaghdad sono in corso violenti scontri tra le forze dell'ordine e i seguaci del leader sciita Muqtada al-Sadr, che a luglio hanno assaltato il parlamento e pochi giorni fa il palazzo presidenziale. Che cosa significano queste proteste per l'Iraq e la regione? Francesco Rocchetti, Segretario Generale ISPI, e Silvia Boccardi, giornalista, ne parlano con Francesco Schiavi, analista ISPI ed esperto di Iraq.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments upon the MENA region's most significant issues and trends. Today we place the spotlight upon Iraq, where an extended political crisis has abruptly resulted in the occupation of the Iraqi parliament by the supporters of the influential leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and a potential confrontation between different Shia factions.The Iraqi political crisis has reached a new peak.
The report focuses on the enormous water challenges of the Basra region, an area that - despite its central position within the Iraqi production system - is facing a crisis of ever greater proportions, with significant effects also on domestic and regional policy.
in iraq In gioco non ci sono solo gli equilibri tra i vari partiti iracheni, ma anche le leve del potere delle fazioni sciite: quelle fedeli all'Iran e quelle più nazionaliste L'instabilità e la frammentazione sono cifre distintive della politica irachena, ma l'ultima mossa del leader sciita Muqtada Al-Sadr rischia di aprire scenari ancora inesplorati.
Da quattro mesi l'Iraq si trova in una fase di stallo politico che impedisce la nomina della prima carica dello stato. La causa di questa impasse è un contesto parlamentare altamente frammentato, dove i principali blocchi politici emersi dal voto dello scorso ottobre non sono stati in grado di formare una maggioranza in parlamento che abbia il peso politico necessario a eleggere il presidente della Repubblica.
L'Iraq inizia il 2022 alle prese con uno degli ostacoli più difficili nel suo processo politico: la formazione di un nuovo esecutivo. Dopo mesi di contestazioni sui risultati elettorali da parte delle fazioni politiche più sfavorite del voto, il 27 dicembre la Corte suprema federale irachena ha finalmente ratificato i risultati delle elezioni, sancendo l'inizio ufficiale del processo di formazione dei principali organi politici dello stato.
L'intervento di Francesco Salesio Schiavi, ricercatore, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale di Milano, alla sessione delle Giornate di Archeologia, Arte e Storia del Vicino e Medio Oriente 2021 dedicata al tema 'Dieci anni dopo le primavere arabe: conflitti permanenti o prospettive di pace?'.
On October 10th 2021 Iraq held its fifth parliamentary election since 2003. The vote took place in the midst of a number of crises and ongoing attempts in Baghdad and Erbil to address the country's socio-economic crisis, which has been compounded by the decline in oil prices, the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical rivalries, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of U.S.
Iraq's geostrategic importance for the European Union is mirrored by the growing interests of single European states. This is particularly true for France and Italy, who are indeed at the forefront of the European strategic relationship with Baghdad. Paris' and Rome's engagement in the country revolves around several dimensions, first and foremost regarding security.
Francesco Salesio Schiavi comments on the vote in favor of a new Iraqi Parliament. The situation in the country is complex, ranging from very high levels of corruption, distrust of institutions and a struggling economy.
L'Iraq che si avvia alle elezioni parlamentari, previste per il 10 ottobre, è un paese ancora diviso. Tante infatti sono le incognite, a partire dalla volontà delle principali formazioni politiche di contribuire proficuamente al processo elettorale, nonché dalle effettive capacità delle autorità irachene di adempiere alle sfide legate alla condizione sanitaria e securitaria per assicurare una corretta e sufficiente affluenza alle urne.
The publication assesses the development of political and security dynamics in the Middle East on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. It focuses in particular on the conditions in Iraq and Syria and how the imposition of the "war on terrorism" as a new political-security paradigm in the region has affected the stability of both countries.
Il primo ministro iracheno Mustafa al-Kadhimi è giunto in visita in Italia come tappa di un tour europeo avviato nei giorni scorsi per rafforzare il livello della cooperazione tra Baghdad e i suoi principali alleati nel campo occidentale.
Through a historical-political analysis, the paper examines the role played by the crises that have affected the Iraqi system since the end of the last century on the delicate identity balances of the country. The document focuses mainly on the consequences of these instabilities within an Arab-Shiite community increasingly aware of its specificity and specific weight within the "land of the two rivers".
A un anno dalla nomina del primo ministro ad interim, l'Iraq di Mustafa al-Kadhimi si prepara a una nuova tornata elettorale (ripetutamente invocata dalle piazze irachene sin dall'ottobre del 2019). Il paese tuttavia deve fare i conti con le proprie fragilità strutturali ulteriormente complicate dal protrarsi della pandemia e con un quadro regionale in costante evoluzione.
Between diplomatic incidents, the collapse of the lira and withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention, there has recently been a lot of talk about Turkey and the role that this country plays in the various dossiers open in the Mediterranean.
Si è concluso ieri lo storico viaggio di Papa Francesco in Iraq. Per la prima volta un pontefice si è recato nella Terra dei Due Fiumi, dove in quattro giorni ha portato a termine una fitta agenda di colloqui istituzionali con figure religiose del mondo cristiano e musulmano (tra cui spicca quello del 6 marzo con il Marja' al-taqlid Ali al-Sistani) e ha visitato luoghi storici della cristianità.
Le recenti scoperte di importanti riserve di gas naturale nel Mediterraneo orientale hanno impresso un profondo cambiamento all'assetto energetico e geopolitico di Israele, segnando l'inizio di una vera e propria "rivoluzione del gas", in termini sia di consumi che di export.
All'inizio del 2021 l'Iraq si trova ancora fare i conti con le sue fragilità economiche e securitarie, aggravate nell'ultimo anno dalla pandemia da Covid-19 e dalla recrudescenza dello Stato Islamico (IS). L'attuale governo ad interim del primo ministro incaricato Mustafa al-Kadhimi fatica ad avviare le riforme da tempo richieste dai movimenti di piazza e a rispettare le promesse elettorali.
A quattro mesi dal suo insediamento, l'attuale esecutivo iracheno deve ancora affrontare una situazione di immensa pressione politica.
On August 20, the Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi met with US President Donald Trump in Washington DC for the second round of the Strategic Dialogues, a series of bilateral talks during which the leaders attempted to discuss the future of both countries' economic, political and security relations.
In May, Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi led the establishment of a new cabinet with the promise of tackling multiple long-standing challenges: balancing tensions among regional and international players, avoiding an economic failure, reining in undisciplined militias, and trying to solve socio-political instability.
Il 2020 si sta rivelando un anno di particolare difficoltà per l'Iraq. Fin dai primi mesi, il paese ha infatti dovuto affrontare il riaccendersi della competizione regionale tra Stati Uniti e Iran, il protrarsi delle proteste di piazza e una crisi istituzionale senza precedenti.
"Il popolo è ancora forte", scrivono i manifestanti sui cartelli in piazza Tahrir a Baghdad. A sole quarantotto ore dalla nomina ufficiale del primo ministro iracheno Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, i cittadini iracheni sono tornati a occupare le strade e le piazze della capitale e delle principali città dell'Iraq centro-meridionale.
As the Covid-19 spreads rapidly on a global scale and states worldwide are struggling with the pandemic, many concerns are arising over the future of fragile and conflict-torn countries in the Middle East and North Africa, where the consequences of the coronavirus are expected to be direr and more destabilizing.
Although the MENA region has recorded fewer coronavirus cases than other parts of the world, the pandemic adds further strain on a region racked by instability, conflicts and structural weaknesses.
Nella sera dell'11 marzo, una salva di razzi Katjusha ha colpito la base militare di Camp Taji, a 27 chilometri a nord di Baghdad, causando la morte di tre soldati della Coalizione internazionale contro lo Stato Islamico (IS) e il ferimento di altri 12 membri.
Nonostante i deboli cenni di ripresa, registrati dopo la chiusura di una delle fasi più nere della sua storia, siano stati interpretati da molti come segnali incoraggianti di un ritrovato equilibrio del paese, a oggi l'Iraq sembra incapace di portare la tanto sperata stabilità e di colmare le distanze che separano la sua popolazione dalla classe politica irachena.
Sabato 1 febbraio, il presidente iracheno Barham Salih ha designato Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi nuovo primo ministro del paese. La nomina pone fine ad un lungo periodo di vuoto istituzionale in Iraq, causato dalle dimissioni lo scorso novembre del premier Adel Abdul Mahdi a fronte delle proteste che da ottobre infiammano il paese.
Dopo più di un mese di ferventi consultazioni, il 22 gennaio si è raggiunto un accordo per la formazione del nuovo governo libanese, che sarà presieduto dal premier designato Hassan Diab, membro della coalizione guidata da Hezbollah e dal 19 dicembre scorso già incaricato di riunire la squadra per il nuovo esecutivo.
L'uccisione da parte degli Stati Uniti del generale iraniano Qassem Suleimani e l'acuirsi della crisi in Libia dopo l'intervento militare della Turchia hanno visto il 2020 aprirsi con una fase di acute tensioni internazionali che potrebbe riverberarsi sulla stabilità dei mercati energetici internazionali.
L'uccisione da parte degli Stati Uniti del generale iraniano Qassem Suleimani e l'acuirsi della crisi in Libia dopo l'intervento militare della Turchia hanno visto il 2020 aprirsi con una fase di acute tensioni internazionali che potrebbe riverberarsi sulla stabilità dei mercati energetici internazionali.
L'uccisione di Qassem Soleimani da parte degli Stati Uniti è una mossa senza precedenti nel quadro delle storiche tensioni tra Washington e Teheran. La scelta di colpire una figura così importante era dovuta, secondo l'amministrazione Trump, dalla necessità di prevenire un imminente attacco iraniano agli interessi americani nella regione. Obiettivo raggiunto?
Nella tarda mattinata del 10 novembre, nei pressi di Kifri, al confine tra il Kurdistan iracheno e i territori controllati dal governo di Baghdad, un ordigno rudimentale è esploso al passaggio di un convoglio misto di forze speciali italiane e irachene, causando 5 feriti tra gli italiani, di cui 3 gravi ma nessuno in pericolo di vita.
In linea con la maggior parte delle previsioni, il secondo turno delle elezioni presidenziali tunisine ha premiato con oltre il 75% dei voti il candidato indipendente Kais Saied davanti al contendente populista Nabil Karoui, che ha ottenuto il 27,5% delle preferenze.
Nuove incognite si aprono per la Siria, e per il Medio Oriente, dopo l'annuncio del presidente USA Donald Trump di voler completare il ritiro del contingente statunitense dal paese. La decisione di Trump, che ha suscitato sorpresa e critiche anche all'interno della sua stessa amministrazione, ha sparigliato le carte del complesso e intricato puzzle siriano, dove si sovrappongono interessi, spesso confliggenti, di diversi attori interni ed esterni.
Da una settimana una sommossa popolare che per ora non sembra destinata a placarsi sta infiammando l'Iraq centro-meridionale. Dalle convulse notizie (complice anche il blocco delle linee internet imposto dal governo iracheno), il paese è attraversato da una crescente ondata di protesta contro la disoccupazione, la corruzione dilagante e l'incapacità del governo di Baghdad di garantire alla popolazione l'accesso ai servizi essenziali.
In conformità con l'andamento dei mesi precedenti, l'Iraq di Adel Abdul-Mahdi e di Barhim Salih sembra mostrare i tanto auspicati segni di ripresa, in ambito economico, per il processo di ricostruzione delle aree distrutte, il ritorno degli sfollati nelle aree liberate e nel rinnovato e bilanciato attivismo in politica estera.
In the last two months, several unexplained explosions occurred in Iraq, significantly damaging ammunition warehouses and weapons storage sites. All targets have been associated with Iranian-backed Population Mobilisation Forces (PMF), suggesting that explosions could not be a mere coincidence as they were probably caused by precision air strikes.
Il 15 settembre la Tunisia voterà per eleggere il nuovo presidente della Repubblica dopo la morte di Beij Caid Essebsi dello scorso 25 luglio. Con buone probabilità un secondo turno si terrà entro e non oltre il 3 novembre.
Lo scorso 25 agosto un convoglio delle Forze di Mobilitazione popolare irachene (PMU) è stato il bersaglio di un'incursione aerea a poca distanza dal confine siriano. L'attacco, non ancora rivendicato, sembra essere collegato a una serie di esplosioni che, nelle scorse settimane, hanno colpito e considerevolmente danneggiato diversi obiettivi legati alle PMU in Iraq.
Il presidente tunisino Beji Caied Essebsi è deceduto oggi all'età di 92 anni. Essebsi era stato ricoverato d'urgenza già un mese fa in seguito ad un grave malore. Sorgono ora inevitabili interrogativi sulle ripercussioni che questo evento potrebbe avere sul futuro assetto politico della Tunisia, soprattutto in virtù del doppio appuntamento elettorale previsto per l'autunno.
L'attacco di giugno alle due petroliere nel Golfo dell'Oman, le cui dinamiche rimangono ancora poco chiare, è solo l'ultimo di una serie di incidenti e sabotaggi - il più recente risalente a metà maggio - a danno di navi cisterna avvenuti dall'inizio dell'anno nelle acque dello Stretto di Hormuz.
a cura di Giacomo Bottos, Francesco Rustichelli, Francesco Salesio Schiavi, Jacopo Scita, Gabriele Sirtori
Gli eventi finora susseguitisi in Iraq durante il 2018 hanno dimostrato come i problemi strutturali del Paese non siano più inclini ad essere risolti oggi rispetto a quanto lo fossero dopo la liberazione di Mosul un anno fa.
