Tim Gwynn Jones

Analyst, writer, and podcaster

United Kingdom

I'm a political and monetary-policy analyst, writer and podcast host. As a journalist-turned-analyst, I've been covering the EU and its markets for three decades.

In 1995, I was on the team that launched European Voice (acquired and rebranded as Politico Europe in 2015) with a beat covering economics, the transition to the euro, business, and trade. In 2002, I joined Medley Advisors as their “ECB watcher” and EU analyst, predicting policy responses to the 2008-13 financial crisis, the 2015 Greek and 2018 Italian political crises, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, and the Ukraine war.

Outside Medley, I write the twenty4two newsletter on Substack, host the In The Room podcast series, and interview authors for the New Books Network.

Contact me at [email protected].

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Portfolio
Medley Advisors
11/23/2023
ECB watching

ECB reports 2020-23 (email tim.jones@europe for access)

Trump II will be worse than "worse than you think"
11/12/2023
Failure of imagination

European leaders show no sign whatsoever of readiness for what may be coming in 14 months: the cascading security and budgetary consequences of the collapse of NATO and a rapidly thawing relationship between Washington and Moscow, clarification for any aggressor that the US will never respond to the aggression, a 10% across-the-board tariff on goods exported to the US, and a severe destabilisation of American democracy. And never forget, this is Donald Trump. Does anyone think he plans to go...

Substack
07/29/2023
twenty4two

“The events of tonight are a turning point in the history of Europe" (Emmanuel Macron, 24 February 2022). Agreed. My Twenty-Four Two newsletter analyses why, how and what next?

Political history podcast
06/18/2022
In The Room

Born out of a world war, the European communities/union grew through successive crises. In this series, I talk to behind-the-scenes officials who were In The Room as Europe evolved from a club of nations into a union.

New Books Network
Talking books

A few months into the pandemic, historian Marshall Poe – the founder of the New Books Network podcast consortium – kindly let me loose on any new books in European politics or economics that took my fancy.

The root and rout of French elite Russophilia
09/03/2022
End of the affair

The February 2022 invasion forced the Germans to pick a side; elevated Poland, the Baltics, and Nordics into an emergent joint alternative power; and transformed Ukraine into an unstable military giant on the EU’s eastern order. France had to adapt or die.

Erik Nielsen, politics and Italian debt
07/10/2023
The lucky country

Meloni’s coalition partners are already lobbying for increased public spending in the run-up to elections to the European Parliament and to the Piedmont regional administration in June 2024. Ramming through a 2023 budget in the dying days of 2022 with a strong and recently won personal mandate was easy. Doing the same with the 2024 budget this autumn will be a lot harder as Matteo Salvini, Meloni’s embittered Lega rival, and a rudderless Forza Italia jostle for relevance. Next year’s...

The strange rebirth of liberal Spain
07/30/2023
The land that Cs forgot

If he scrapes together another government from Sumar, the new vehicle for the right of Podemos, and regional parties keen to keep Vox out of power, Sánchez is going to have to be less of a “nowhere man” than he’s been since failing upwards into office in 2018.

POLITICO
01/07/1995
European Voice

I wrote a lot of copy for European Voice (most of it from 1995-2000 - and some of it pretty good) that Politico has inexplicably archived.